000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 02N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 0N TO 04N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W. LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINING BASIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE THE NW GULF ON MONDAY MORNING. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N87W TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 24N87W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXCEPT S OF 27N BETWEEN 86W TO 90W...SE TO S WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N W OF 95W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SE GULF WILL DRIFT N-NE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND EXIT THE BASIN WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC MONSOON REGION INTO THE BASIN. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ARE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 18N85W TO COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA NEAR 11N82W AND ENHANCES SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE...LEAVING THE TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ALOFT BEING ADVECTED FROM THE MONSOON REGION IN THE EPAC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N70W COVERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 24N W OF 56W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT FROM 31N47W SW TO 22N60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 24N54W TO 18N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS N OF 13N W OF 32W BEING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH TO DRIFT S-SE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N22W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 19N23W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND NORTHERN AFRICA SW TO 21N17W TO 15N23W. NO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR