000
AXNT20 KNHC 081127
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 AM EST SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 17W-24W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 28W-43W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
31N72W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SE TO S RETURN FLOW WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. PATCHES OF RESIDUAL BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF 
IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF 
FROM 24N87W TO BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 21N86W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH 
TO MOVE N TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AT 21N86W TO 17N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-20N 
BETWEEN 82W-87W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT JUST REACHES N OF 
PUERTO RICO AT 19N66W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 
FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. 
                                               
...HISPANIOLA...  

REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE 
THE MOISTURE CONTENT. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
DUE TO NE ONSHORE FLOW. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
31N72W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 
19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. 
A SMALL 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N44W. A 1011 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N24W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE 
LOW TO 26N22W TO 20N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N23W 
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

FORMOSA