000
AXNT20 KNHC 071738
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 PM EST SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
1N30W TO 1S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200NM N 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 45W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF S CAROLINA NEAR 
33N79W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING EASTERLY 
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 
10 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHERE STEERING FLOW IS WEAKER. LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 26 N 
ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN. 
THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL 
PROVIDE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY WITH 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.                           
                    
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO S CUBA WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N76W TO THE 
HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N84W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF 
THE SHEAR LINE. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE SE OF THE SHEAR 
LINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE WHILE A TROUGH 
DEVELOPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  
                                                
...HISPANIOLA...  

THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHEAR LINE OVER S CUBA AND COLD FRONT N OF 
HISPANIOLA OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES PAST THE 
ISLAND TO THE NORTH. 
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF S CAROLINA NEAR 
33N79W. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 31N53W TO JUST SOUTH OF 
THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W TO S CUBA NEAR 20N75W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 
52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT S OF 
27N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N58W TO 20N63W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
26N46W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N32W WITH A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N29W TO 24N28W TO 21N33W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 20W AND 
30W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 
27N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH OVER S CAROLINA WILL MOVE 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL 
MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW OVER THE E ATLANTIC WILL 
CONTINUE E WHILE WEAKENING. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO