000
AXNT20 KNHC 071106
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
0N31W TO 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE COAST 
OF LIBERIA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 5W-11W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
                                               
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
32N80W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. RESIDUAL BROKEN COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. THE 
REMAINDER OF GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH SOME SCATTERED 
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED RETURN 
FLOW IN A WARMING TREND WITH NEXT TO NO PRECIPITATION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
                                                 
A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N76W TO THE COAST OF NE 
HONDURAS AT 16N84W. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR 
LINE...WHILE 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE SHEAR LINE.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND 
BELIZE. MORE RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO 
DISSIPATE. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...  

THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHEAR LINE OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA 
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT SUPPORTING POSSIBLE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS THE SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
                                               
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
32N80W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 
27N60W TO E CUBA AT 20N76W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF 
FRONT WITH BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER 
E NEAR 28N47W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N33W. 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N28W 25N29W 21N34W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-30N 
BETWEEN 24W-27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W 
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA