000 AXNT20 KNHC 062332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW ATLANTIC N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 24N76W TO 22N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 16W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER N CAROLINA. WITH THESE FEATURES FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE W REACHING THE NE GULF E OF 85W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT E ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N78W TO 16N86W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT THIS AREA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE FRONT WHILE SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND STALL OVER E CUBA AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER E CUBA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN OVER E CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 21N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 49W-68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NW ATLANTIC. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N48W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N33W. THE FRONT IS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N34W TO 21N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 25N BETWEEN 26W-32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND E CONUS TO MOVE E REACHING THE W ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE W ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA