000 AXNT20 KNHC 061806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W TO BEYOND 27N70W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 5N15W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W WITH NEAR ZONAL SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER N ALABAMA. BROKEN TO LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS BASIN S OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-97W. FOG/HAZE IS BEING REPORTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO TEXAS AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO N OF 24N LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF AND N/CENTRAL GULF EARLY ON MON AND ACROSS THE N GULF MON AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL W TO NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC/NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA TO 19N86W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN TO NEAR 19N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 62W-75W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE COLD FRONT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM E CUBA SW TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE FROM THERE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL STALL FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY SAT. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF AND W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N63W ALONG 27N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N52W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 32N34W ALONG 28N33W 23N39W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 28W-33W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 33W-37W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N57W TO 23N71W THEN STATIONARY TO E CUBA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE DURING THE REST OF SAT/EARLY SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SUN. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO JUST NE OF 65W SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SE GEORGIA COAST LATE MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW