000 AXNT20 KNHC 061147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N69W TO 24N80W. GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 63W AND THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W TO 2N19W...TO 2N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 1S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 6W AND 12W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N15W TO 22N24W 10N35W 5N51W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 26N15W-TO-5N51W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 32N70W 27N77W 23N88W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N77W...TO 24N82W AND 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS... REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 80 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21N TO 23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS DISPLAYED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM 17N TO 31N. SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 88W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 27N70W 22N80W. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A TEXAS 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N98W...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA OF THE PLATFORM SITES. THE ONLY SITES THAT ARE NOT REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE...KEIR...KMDJ...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ONE- THIRD OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO JAMAICA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW RUNS UP AGAINST THE MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA...AND IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BECOMING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AS MOVES TOWARD HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N87W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. CLOUD CEILINGS RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 4000 FEET TO 8000 FEET...WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN...IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA TO GUATEMALA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...E VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO 17N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. A TROUGH WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND 24-HOUR PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SURROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE FIST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE ENTIRE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO 28N60W BEYOND 32N58W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N35W 24N31W 18N30W 11N32W. A SECOND BRANCH OF A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N38W TO 7N47W AND TO 5N56W IN SURINAME. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 28N34W 24N40W AND 23N50W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 23N50W TO 24N57. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N34W 25N35W 20N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 29W AND 38W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N53W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N34W-TO-24N58W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N22W TO 20N33W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT