000 AXNT20 KNHC 052336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N80W. THIS WARNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 02N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N32W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS MOMENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS E CONUS ENTERING THE NE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF FROM 22N93W TO 27N82W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 19N91W TO 23N87W TO 26N82W. LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXITING THE SE CORNER OF THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS MAINLY S OF 27N. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL TEXAS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WHERE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE W FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE EXITING THE GULF QUICKLY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W GULF WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT AND PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SW GULF IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AFFECTING THE WATERS W OF 83W AND WESTERN CUBA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-78W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER E CUBA AND WEAKEN. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN AND STALL OVER E CUBA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 61W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC E OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N80W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N79W TO 31N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 66W-80W. TO THE E...A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N61W TO 23N55W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N44W TO 31N38W. THE SECOND FRONT IS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 27N33W TO 31N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT BETWEEN THESE FRONTS MAINLY N OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N AND E OF 27W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO EXIT N OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN AND STALL ACROSS E CUBA ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA