000 AXNT20 KNHC 051201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A 31N78.5W 29N81.5W COLD FRONT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WINDS... GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STOP AFTER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST... THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N78.5W TO 29N81.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RELATION TO THE COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 5N8W 4N12W TO 2N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N17W...TO 1N20W...1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 1S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 6W AND 11W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 41W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N16W TO 18N30W 11N40W 6N56W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 24N16W-TO-6N56W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT COVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N90W 24N93W...AND TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS DISPLAYED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO 25N86W AND TO 21N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N86W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W 28N81W 23N84W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM BEAUMONT TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA OF THE PLATFORM SITES. THE ONLY SITES THAT ARE NOT REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE...KHHV...KEHC...KVKY...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO SARASOTA FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO NAPLES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ONE- THIRD OF THE AREA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...FINALLY CURVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF 20N80W TO JAMAICA...RUNNING UP AGAINST THE MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA...AND IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N87W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA BEYOND 7N90W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO GUATEMALA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THAT ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO 17N59W IN THE ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE 48 TIME PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...SENDING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM A POSITION THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO A POSITION THAT ENDS UP BEING WAY TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N44W. THIS TROUGH IS MERGING WITH THE 32N28W-TO-6N57W TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N50W 23N60W AND 23N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF 26N45W 23N55W 24N66W 24N73W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 63W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 22N30W TO 14N38W TO 10N47W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 6N57W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N30W TO 24N35W AND TO 19N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 31W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 24N27W TO 15N31W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N30W-TO-19N42W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT