000 AXNT20 KNHC 050605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A 31N78W 29N81W COLD FRONT. GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST... THE 12 HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND CONDITIONS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11N FEET TO 13 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 5N8W 4N12W TO 2N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N17W...TO 1N20W...1N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 1S37W AND TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD...AND FROM 2N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N16W TO 18N30W 11N40W 6N56W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 24N16W-TO-6N56W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT COVER MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER TO 23N90W...AND TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS DISPLAYED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO 25N88W AND TO 19N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 88W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM BEAUMONT TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N96W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA OF THE PLATFORM SITES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO SARASOTA FLORIDA. EXPECT RAIN IN THE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N86W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO GUATEMALA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THAT ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO 17N59W IN THE ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE 48 TIME PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...SENDING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM A POSITION THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO A POSITION THAT ENDS UP BEING WAY TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N44W TO 29N45W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N50W 24N60W AND 24N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 22N31W TO 14N38W TO 10N47W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 6N57W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 31N31W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 24N35W AND 20N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 28N30W 29N29W 24N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 23N28W TO 16N31W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N30W-TO-20N41W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT