000 AXNT20 KNHC 042336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N WITHIN 60 NM W OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N91W. THIS WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE DEVELOPING IN THE W ATLANTIC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W. THIS WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH TEXAS AND ENTERS THE NW GULF WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 96W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AND E GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. FROM THIS LOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 29N87W TO THE LOW AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 23N92W TO 19N92W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL N OF 23N E OF 90W AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND THE SE CONUS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF AS LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS STRONG WINDS MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 90W. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW AND FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER E MEXICO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLANTIC. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR CUBA AND WEAKEN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG CUBA AND WEAKEN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE END OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W TO 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N69W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO 25N33W TO 20N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR BOTH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NE OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 28N. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA