000 AXNT20 KNHC 041751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N WITHIN 60 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N90W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 24N95W TO 21N90W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THU MORNING OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 27.5N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 17W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER TEXAS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE W GULF AT 04/1500 UTC NEAR 24N95W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG 26N93W TO 28N89W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N93W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COMALCALCO. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 94W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 23N-16N BETWEEN 90W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE TROUGH/LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH SE OF MONTERREY MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE DEVELOPING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL BE A WARM/COLD FRONTS BY TONIGHT. THIS NEW FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF ON THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E OVER THE W GULF THU AND THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MAY BE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N- 20N BETWEEN 83W-87W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND W OF 81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN STALL FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC STARTING THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N72W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FROM 31N79W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W ALONG 27N58W TO 24N65W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THIS FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 25N34W TO 19N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST THU MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NE OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA THU AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AND STALL STARTING FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW