000 AXNT20 KNHC 040603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THESE GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N16W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W...TO 1N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...AND STAYING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N7W TO 6N10W TO 6N14W TO 3N29W 3N43W AND 3N50W SOUTHWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 23N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 27N80W TO 24N86W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N86W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 3N78W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 5N83W... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SMALL PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...ENDING UP ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AT THE END OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...EASTWARD TO 24N60W AT THE END OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY...EASTERLY...SOUTHEASTERLY...AND FINALLY SOUTHERLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 25N40W TO 16N42W TO 10N50W TO 5N51W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 31N31W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 23N37W AND 20N40W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N40W TO 18N44W AND TO 20N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N32W 25N36W AND TO 21N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N27W TO 16N34W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N31W 25N35W 18N43W 20N53W COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT