000 AXNT20 KNHC 040003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN...NE TO E GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N14W SW TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS...THE FAR WESTERN ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N. THIS SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER SW ALABAMA IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N96W TO 24N97W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE TO E FROM THE LOW ALONG 22N90W TO 23N83W. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO OBSERVED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 84W AND S OF 23N W OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT NE TO E WHILE IT WEAKENS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF EARLY THU MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA THU MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES...THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW S AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY. REMNANT MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND OVER SW HAITI. NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO A STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N61W SW TO 24N73W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N64W TO 24N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF BOTH BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER LOW N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TROPICS AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N31W SW TO 22N39W TO 20N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 27N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE S NW ATLC WATERS ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR