000 AXNT20 KNHC 031743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13.5N BETWEEN 73.5W-77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT 03/18OO UTC AND WILL PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 63W. THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT 03/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO... THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 1N32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 9W-20W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF S TO W FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N87W TO A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO 24N97W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVER THE GULF W OF 84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COVERING THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND SE CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NE LOUISIANA AND A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT E OF 90W WILL DRIFT S INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STALL. THE LOW AND THE REMINDER OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT N TODAY TO NEAR 27N BY WED EVENING THEN MOVE E-NE ACROSS NE GULF WED NIGHT AND EXIT ACROSS FLORIDA EARLY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN AND MAY BE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 63W-78W AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 78W-84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL DRIFT S AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING N ON WED. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL REMAIN N OF HISPANIOLA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FRONT COULD GIVE THE S PORTION OF THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 27N71W TO 24N80W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N66W ALONG 27N69W TO 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND SE CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LOW N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TROPICS AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32WN30W TO 24N38W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE W ATLC AND E/CENTRAL ATLC FRONTS. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N58W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT N WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW