000 AXNT20 KNHC 031158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...THE GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 25N80W TO 22.5N86W...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N95W...THEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO 18.5N93W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. THE GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 77W. THESE GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEY WILL STOP FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST ALSO CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO- EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N70W TO 25N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH- TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 65W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 1S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N18W 3N26W 3N40W 2N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 27N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N90W AND IT CURVES TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N95W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN MEXICO ALONG 17N97W 21N100W 26N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMPARATIVELY THICKEST CLOUDS ARE FROM 86W WESTWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A TEXAS 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N99W...TO THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KMZG...KBBF... KBQX...KVAF...KEMK... KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ... KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER TEXAS FROM VICTORIA-PORT LAVACA-PALACIOS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM VICTORIA TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND NICARAGUA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO 800 MB FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND 84W. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. SPECIFICALLY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N61W- 13N67W-15N70W-16N80W-16N85W NORTHWARD BETWEEN 61W AND 85W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 4N83W... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA. 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N61W-13N67W-15N70W-16N80W-16N85W NORTHWARD BETWEEN 61W AND 85W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. MORE THAN ONE TROUGH IS APPARENT. THREE TROUGHS WERE LISTED IN THE MIATWDAT FROM 03/0604 UTC. THE TROUGHS OF SIX HOURS AGO ARE BLENDING TOGETHER/MERGING INTO ONE BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 22N40W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 22N40W TO 20N50W 20N60W AND 20N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 23N40W 22N50W 20N64W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 22N30W TO 17N39W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N32W 22N40W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT