000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N76W TO 27N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 65W... EXCEPT RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FT BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST ALSO CONSISTS OF GALE- FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ...THE GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 26N82W 23N89W 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N15W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 1S37W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 7W AND 10W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 21W...FROM 2N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 27W AND 40W...AND FROM 3N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO 21N93W AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN MEXICO ALONG 18N97W 24N102W 29N105W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 86W WESTWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A TEXAS 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N98W...TO THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KMZG...KBQX...KVAF...KGRY...KATP...KEIR... KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM VICTORIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND NICARAGUA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO 800 MB FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND 84W. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. SPECIFICALLY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N76W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 4N83W... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA. 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 24N47W AND 14N49W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 26N37W TO 20N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 24N39W 22N46W 20N63W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLAND...TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N34W TO 14N46W TO 10N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 26N27W TO 19N35W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N34W 26N37W 20N46W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT