000 AXNT20 KNHC 021800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 78W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ...THE GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 28N82W TO 24N90W TO 22N96W TO 19N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 97W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N27W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N12W 4N26W 4N37W 3N45W SOUTHWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 26N80W 25N90W 22N98W SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... WITHOUT REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 24N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N AND CUBA NORTHWARD FROM 65W WESTWARD... AND IN MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AREAS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...ONLY AT KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...COVERS FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FORT MYERS AND NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB-TO-800 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N52W TO 19N60W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 20N57W 17N62W 16N69W 17N74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 18N56W 16N58W 14N59W 11N59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N79W... BEYOND 5N84W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N52W TO 19N60W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 20N57W 17N62W 16N69W 17N74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 18N56W 16N58W 14N59W 11N59W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EITHER A RIDGE WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...OR AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N41W TO 18N42W AND 12N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 25N45W TO 21N47W...TO 20N52W TO 19N60W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 20N57W 17N62W 16N69W 17N74W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 18N56W 16N58W 14N59W 11N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N34W...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT