000 AXNT20 KNHC 020608 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W UNTIL MON MORNING. THIS GALE WILL PULSE AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MON INTO TUE. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST N OF 30N W OF 75W STARTING MON AFTERNOON UNTIL TUE MORNING. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY MON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MON EVENING S OF 22N W OF 95W THROUGH TUE MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE W GULF MON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N28W 1N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 38W-45W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 3.5N10W TO 1N24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAIN STATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON. THE E SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL RACE SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON NIGHT WHILE LEAVING A NW TO SE ORIENTED REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GENERATING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 24N96W EARLY ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 16N66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N- 18N E OF 68W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU NIGHT INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS THOUGH TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N71W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N44W ALONG 25N50W 20N64W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA W OF 70W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO 21N76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N45W ALONG 20N55W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS BEING AMPLIFIED AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N44W TO BEYOND 32N40W. A REMNANT 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N35W. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA WILL INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST MON WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS N OF 30N NEAR THE FRONT TILL EARLY TUE AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW