000 AXNT20 KNHC 011804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC...W TO NW GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N WITHIN 480 NM W OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N49W TO 21N65W TO 22N78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 22 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE SE U.S. COAST. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 16 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN RESUME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN GULF FROM 21N TO 24N W OF 96W AND A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 28N83W TO 18N93W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE MONDAY NIGHT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N28W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE SE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PUSHES FORWARD A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL EXTENDING ALONG NORTHERN CUBA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 23N81W NW TO 27N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W...THEN ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SE TO S FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF IS ADVECTING SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN THAT SUPPORTS FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 88W...ALSO SHOWN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR AND LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF MONDAY MORNING AND GALE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER E CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE SE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PUSHES FORWARD A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N49W SW TO 20N72W WITH TAIL EXTENDING ALONG NORTHERN CUBA. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 30N48W TO 18N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. MONDAY MORNING AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS