000 AXNT20 KNHC 301735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC GALE IS FORECAST AT 0000 UTC 31 JAN TO BE N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO 26N80W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 0600 UTC. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 30N-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W TO S TEXAS AT 27N97W. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF 95W AND S OF 24N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE S OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 27N...AND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT MAY WELL REMAIN VOID OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE PREVALENT OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NE HONDURAS...AND S OF JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON PUERTO RICO RADAR OVER THE ISLAND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING WITH WSW FLOW IS OVER THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND HAS FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR AN AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC ON 0000 UTC 31 JAN. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVING E FROM 32N54W TO 24N60W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 24N. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W N OF 24N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 33W-36W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA