000 AXNT20 KNHC 270536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 23N79W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N34W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC THROUGH CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE NW...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS THE COOL AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PREVAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N87W TO 21N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N80W TO 31N71W. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N76W TO 28N69W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 59W-70W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 24N46W TO 28N46W. A 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N22W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE AND THE NEW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA