000 AXNT20 KNHC 240601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... .COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 18.5N93W. S OF 21N W OF 94W N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W...TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 2N29W 3N44W AND 2N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N34W 16N43W TO 7N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO 320 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 5N45W TO 7N34W 12N25W...AND BEYOND 18N15W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 700 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO 26N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MORE INLAND IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A....ABOUT 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N82W 25N85W 22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 31N...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGVX...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK... KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KVBS... KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP... KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT... KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN MISSISSIPPI...IN ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD...RAIN AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND TO PUNTA GORDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA... ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 76W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 80W FROM CUBA NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE NEAR 20N81W...MOVING TO HISPANIOLA AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME...ENDING NEAR 19N60W AT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N59W TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 25N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N53W AND 27N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 27N59W TO 27N69W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N47W TO 26N49W AND 22N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N44W 30N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N37W TO 21N42W AND 15N52W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 13N53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT