000 AXNT20 KNHC 231133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 95W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/SAT MORNING N OF 29N W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20N-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE N GULF NEAR 28N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 24N94W INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 30N88W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST N OF PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 86W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING S OVER THE FAR W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE AND INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN OVER THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM E CUBA TO N/CENTRAL HONDURAS THROUGH SUN MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE SAT INTO SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA THROUGH THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 29N73W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W ALONG 25N54W TO 25N60W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND THE TROUGH/50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SAT MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS FROM 32N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW