000 AXNT20 KNHC 230546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY S OF 25N W OF 94W IN THE WAKE A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FRI NIGHT N OF 30N W 0F 77W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21N-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA TO NE FLORIDA GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO GIVING THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-94W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W OF 94W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRI. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W GULF FRI AND OUT OF THE GULF ON SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO W CUBA THEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-72W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE SAME WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 12N. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON LATE SAT AND WEAKEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA SUN. ...HISPANIOLA... SOME EASTERLY TRADE WIND GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRI. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SAT WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE SAT INTO SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N53W. AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SAT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SUN BEFORE IT STALLS FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW