000 AXNT20 KNHC 222357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS... A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE S OF 25N W OF 94W. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT 06 HOURS LATER. ...GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN 30 HOURS... SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 77W. LATER IN 48 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE W OF FRONT. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 28N W OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 8-17 FT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N30W TO 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TO THE NE GULF AT 30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY 25-30 KT WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. E OF FRONT 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS ...WHILE BROAD RIDGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N86W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. A BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM BELIZE TO S OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO 28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 23N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 47W- 51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 30 HOURS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF A COLD FRONT TO REACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEE ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA