000 AXNT20 KNHC 221121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 6N14W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 4N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 11W- 14W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 34W- 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N86W TO 24N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO INLAND ACROSS TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS WILL OFF THE COAST TODAY AND RACE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TONIGHT TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE FRI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE W GULF TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRI AND PASS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON SAT AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO W CUBA THEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 84W TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MONRING. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRI WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE W. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N56W INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 51W-58W. TO THE S IS A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N58W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W TO 26N52W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 23N61W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W GIVING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY SAT AND RACE E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW