000
AXNT20 KNHC 212349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-32W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 38W-43W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...       

AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N85W TO 25N86W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA AT 30N93W TO CORPUS 
CHRISTI TEXAS AT 27N97W. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL TEXAS. VARIABLE 10 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE W 
GULF W OF 90W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT IN 6-
12 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E GULF TO DISSIPATE. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE 
TEXAS COAST TO DISSIPATE WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES 
INTO THE NW GULF AGAIN FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS 
WITH CONVECTION.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA... 
                                            
AS OF 2100 UTC...10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 78W-80W...AND OVER 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BAND OF 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPEND FROM JAMAICA TO THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE 
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU EVENING OVER THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...  

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W TO THE N 
BAHAMAS AT 25N79W VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1016 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-
30N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 47W-51W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N26W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF 
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 21N33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA