000 AXNT20 KNHC 211717 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N35W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 23W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N89W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM 30N85W TO 27N86W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO ANY OF THESE FEATURES...WHICH LEAVES THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF. A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SW TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF DRAGGING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W- 79W WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS. BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS THE TRADES CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO 32N77W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR 27N778W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W-75W. TO THE E...TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST IS A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N60W. THE SECOND ONE IS A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 29N50W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N56W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N58W TO 17N59W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 58W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA