000 AXNT20 KNHC 201117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO 24N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N91W ALONG 24N89W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-29N E OF 87W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS CENTERED NEAR 24N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 87W-91W. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO NEAR GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NE AND BECOME A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED IN THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY TODAY THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 20N82W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA S OF 13N. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS MORNING. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE AGAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU WITH A CHANCE OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N63W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W THEN DISSIPATES AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT 1014 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 25N55W TO BEYOND 32N48W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N- 28N BETWEEN 53W-58W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N49W ALONG 27N51W TO 25N57W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO 14N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. THE CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW