000 AXNT20 KNHC 200002 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...TO 7N17W AND 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 2N30W 2N40W AND 1N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N66W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N66W AND 23N71W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N71W...TO 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 23N88W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 23N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.12 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.03 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N69W...TO A 1023 MB NORTH FLORIDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N83W...TO 27N93W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KXIH...KSPR...AND KIPN. KGVX AND KGUL WERE REPORTING CLEARING SKIES DURING THE LAST OBSERVATION. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.17 IN CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N76W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...AND BEYOND 8N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ONE CELL OF STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO PUERTO RICO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N50W AND 25N53W... AND TO 23N60W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N60W TO 21N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N39W...TO 27N38W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N35W...TO 20N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS INLAND IN AFRICA IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ALGERIA TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 26N17W AND 28N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N33W TO 28N35W AND 19N37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND THE 32N50W 23N60W STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT