000 AXNT20 KNHC 190540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-25W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM 1N-5N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA COVERING THE N GULF N OF 27N WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT S OF 27N. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI ALONG 24N89W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST S OF THE TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND JUST S OF TAMPA BAY TO 27N90W. THE FRONT HAS SPLIT THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE GULF AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. THE E PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE GULF LATER TONIGHT WHILE THE W PORTION STALLS AND LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS N INTO THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 81W AND THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PORTION OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SHOWERS THOROUGH MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N78W THE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MIAMI. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W ALONG 28N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MELBOURNE. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 33N50W ALONG 30N49W 25N52W TO 22N67W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N54W TO 20N60W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ALONG 60W TO 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS MON AFTERNOON THEN PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW