000 AXNT20 KNHC 181712 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W TO 2N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY S TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50NM SE OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF...EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 28N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30NM OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND AS OF 1630 UTC EXTENDS FROM 27N85W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE W OF THE TROUGH AND S OF THE COLD FRONT. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE E OF THIS TROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGHS EASTWARD AS THEY DISSIPATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE ALONG 20N IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI...IN THE VICINITY OF A RECENTLY DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 1630 UTC...SURFACE WINDS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NOW REACHES 20N ALONG 86W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN 50NM OF 86W N OF 20N. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA FROM THE ATLANTIC BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W AND CONTINUES ALONG 22N60W TO 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF 22N. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 22N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N55W TO 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N30W WHICH IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 45W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL EXTEND S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO