000 AXNT20 KNHC 172353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W AND 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 3N30W AND 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THIS TROUGH WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. A SURFACE THROUGH IS ALONG 27N90W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N79W... TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N84W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGRY...AND KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA...AND IN FLORIDA...IN NAPLES...AND IN MARATHON KEY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...TO 15N81W...INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE. BROAD SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. SOME AREAS ARE...FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 71W...AND FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 3N81W 6N84W AND 6N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N NORTHWARD...REACHING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N66W TO 20N73W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 20N73W... ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 21N81W...TO 19N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...CROSSING JAMAICA...AND REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN HAITI. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AND IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL SPAN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N60W 21N70W 20N73W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 20N73W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 21N81W...TO 19N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N60W 19N69W. OVERCAST BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-SIDE OF CUBA FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 71W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 23N50W 21N56W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OCEAN. IT PASSES THROUGH 34N60W TO 32N66W...JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.12 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...TO 28N43W 24N46W...AND 19N58W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N54W-TO-20N73W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT