000 AXNT20 KNHC 171128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N13W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W TO 1N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 11W- 15W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE CONUS FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF NEAR 21N85W TO 22N86W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 27N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA E OF 83W AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-96W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR SE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AND MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA OVER CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N82W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SOON STALL THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W. THE CHANCE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TODAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON SUN AND MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 58W-75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N68W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS/TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CAMAGUEY CUBA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N66W ALONG 26N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO JUST W OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE EASTERN AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SW ATLC N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC EARLY SUN AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW