000 AXNT20 KNHC 170542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W TO 1N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 2N-6N BETWEEN 46W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE CONUS FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF NEAR 22N84W TO 22N86W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 25N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA E OF 85W AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-96W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N95W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE W GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 89W WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA JUST N OF CAMAGUEY ALONG 22N82W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT S OF PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PANAMA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WEST AND CENTRAL CUBA WILL DISSIPATE ON SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SAT...DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON SUN AND MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N61W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N68W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA JUST N OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 150 NM SE OF REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E OF 69W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N70W ALONG 27N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH ABOUT 150 NM S OF THE EASTERN AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC ON SAT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ON SUN. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC SUN THEN EXTEND FROM 32N72W TO E CUBA ON SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW