000 AXNT20 KNHC 162345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND EXITS THE COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 02N26W TO 06N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 38W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN US EXTENDS INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N91W TO 23N89W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT CONNECTING TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N82W. THE COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SW ATLANTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE N...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 26N87W TO 30N73W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM W AND CENTRAL US ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT S OF 22N AND W OF 94W WHERE A FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE EASTERN US. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NW CUBA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE HENCE INHIBITING CONVECTION. GENTLE TRADE WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS DEPICTED BY THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO ENTER THE BASIN AND STALL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ISLAND TONIGHT FROM THE NW ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO 30N73W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF INTO THE SW ATLANTIC FROM 24N80W TO 27N70W TO A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 36N59W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 27N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 57W-67W. TO THE E...A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N27W AND DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA