000
AXNT20 KNHC 161754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND EXITS THE COAST 
NEAR 08N13W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 
02N30W TO 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...        

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 
EASTERN US EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
TO 31N69W TO THE FL KEYS AND OVER THE GULF TO A 1013 MB SURFACE 
LOW NEAR 24N85W TO 23N89W WHERE THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO 19N91W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTS. THE UPPER 
TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 
28N91W. A WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO NE AND SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING 
NORTH OF THIS TROUGH. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE 
FRONTS. EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 
THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 
10 TO 15 KT ARE SOUGH OF THE FRONTS AND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. 
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 
25N99W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE 
HIGH...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE 
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE EASTERN US. THE SURFACE LOW 
IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 
SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...        

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND 
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 
TO 20 KT COVER THE SW...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN BASIN. NW WINDS OF 
5 TO 10 KT COVER THE NW BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE 
WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE PORTION OF THE 
FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS 
IT ENTERS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION 
THROUGH SATURDAY. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
APPROACH THE ISLAND TONIGHT FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE ISLAND ON 
SATURDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE 
HISPANIOLA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE FRONT IS NEAR 
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 
31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FL KEYS NEAR 25N81W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A PAIR OF 
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FIRST TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 29N81W. NO PRECIPITATION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE SECOND TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 
31N64W TO 24N69W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
25N TO 31N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. FARTHER EAST...A 1037 MB SURFACE 
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 36N27W AND DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N60W TO HISPANIOLA 
WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO