000 AXNT20 KNHC 161124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO GUINEA NEAR 10N14W THEN ALONG 10N17W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 2N42W TO 1N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA NEAR THE GEORGIA BORDER AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC. A REMNANT 1015 MB LOW IS MOVING TO THE SE NEAR 26N85W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA TO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 27N84W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF NAPLES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF 85W. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 85W-90W AND S OF 28N W OF 90W. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM ALABAMA TO TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SE AND DISSIPATE NEAR W CUBA ON SAT. AN INVERTED N TO S TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG 89W WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N80W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND S OF PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 66W-69W AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF GUADELOUPE. THE SAME SCENARIO OF UPPER AND SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 20N TONIGHT AND SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED OVER THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY WESTERLY AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA NEAR THE GEORGIA BORDER AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W TO 31N74W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N74W OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N79W. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST S OF NAPLES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS TO THE EAST EXTENDING INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N62W ALONG 28N66W TO 24N71W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N45W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 20N50W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N50W TO 19N55W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 20N24W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH SUN. THE WESTERN COLD FRONT WILL RACE E AND MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO LATE SAT THEN STALL OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUN. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW