000 AXNT20 KNHC 152354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N93W WITH COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO 19N95W ARE PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE AFRICA COASTLINE N OF THE GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 05N02W TO 02N07W TO 03N11W. FROM THERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 04N16W TO 02N28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 16W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO REINFORCE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 19N95W CONNECTING TO A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N93W. TO THE E OF THE LOW...THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 25N93W TO 27N90W TO 24N82W TO 25N80W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THESE BOUNDARIES EXCEPT BETWEEN 22N-26N AND W OF 94W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 33N85W TO 27N89W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EPAC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT MID-LEVELS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N AND E OF 88W AFFECTING THE ADJACENT NE GULF WATERS AS WELL AS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE REINFORCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AS DEPICTED BY THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATING THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE SLIGHT TRADES ARE DEPICTED W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E AND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ENTERS THE SOUTHER CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE E WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 996 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 42N52W TO 30N66W TO 25N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN 51W-70W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 23N-26N BETWEEN 68W-70W. TO THE E...A BROAD 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N34W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN AREA OF STRONG SE WINDS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS HIGH FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 33W- 41W. OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NW AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N25W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG NW AFRICA ANALYZED FROM 26N15W TO 17N16W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA