000 AXNT20 KNHC 151713 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE AFRICA COASTLINE N OF THE GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN INTO THE GULF WATERS FROM 04N02E TO 02N10W. FROM THERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03N17W TO 02N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE REINFORCENT TO A STALLED AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 26N88W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N94W...THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. SHALLOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN TO SUPPORT FOG ON THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. A RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN GULF WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL-WESTERN GEORGIA TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO 27N89W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W...INCLUDING MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. BUOYS AND PLATFORMS OVER THE NW GULF ARE SHOWING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SLIGHTLY DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH PRESURE CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE REINFORCED FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS FROM NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. REMOTELY SENSED SCATTEROMETER DATA AND IN- SITU BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. TRADES IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO A GENTLE BREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUING TO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY- NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NW BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N- NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 39N61W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS AND ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N66W SW TO 25N75W. A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT WIND PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...A SHARP AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N38W. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WESTERN AFRICA FROM 27N14W TO NORTHERN SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W. THE REMAINDER ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1034 MB HIGHS N OF 30N. NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ARE OBSERVED. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE FRONT ON THE SW N ATLC BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS