000
AXNT20 KNHC 142325
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN 
INTO THE ATLC NEAR 04N09W TO 04N12W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO 
THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N29W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N 
BETWEEN 16W-40W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE 
EPAC WATERS INTO THE GULF. WITH THIS...OVERCAST SKIES AND 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN. A FRONTAL 
SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ANALYZED AS A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 19N94W...THROUGH A 1017 MB LOW 
NEAR 23N95W...THEN TO 23N88W. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY 
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS TO 24N81W THEN INTO 
THE W ATLANTIC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED BY 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHILE A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS 
NOTICED S OF THE BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. A SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC INTO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND 
JAMAICA WHILE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE DEPICTED BY 
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING 
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR STABLE CONDITIONS TO 
DOMINATE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
24N80W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 33N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 
FROM 23N75W TO 31N70W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THIS TROUGH MAINLY 
N OF 23N BETWEEN 63W-71W. TO THE E...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 31N37W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE 
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING AND FOR THE HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT NE.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA