000 AXNT20 KNHC 141218 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA CROSSING THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC TO 04N18W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N18W TO 04N35W THEN TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER NEAR 02N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 24N90W WHERE IT STARTS TO BECOME DIFFUSE TO 23N95W THEN SOUTH TO 18N94W. ZONAL WINDS ALOFT ARE LIMITING THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND IT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT IS MODIFYING RAPIDLY OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MAINLY THE NW GULF. OBSERVATIONS FROM CMAN SITES OFF VERACRUZ INDICATE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT HAD BEEN FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF THE FRONT HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SLOWING SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO THE NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALSO IS SUPPORTING FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH PUERTO RICO. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS BUOY SITES FARTHER EAST INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW LIGHT AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN EXPOSURES AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT...ALLOWING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING STALLED FRONT REACHES FROM 31N76W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29.5N79W OVER THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE GULF STREAM CURRENT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TCI THIS MORNING WILL INTERACT WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION S OF 22N W OF 65W THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N38W IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 22N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN