000 AXNT20 KNHC 140545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA CROSSING THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC TO 04N19W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N19W TO 04N40W TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 24N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO 24N95W...THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 18N93W. ZONAL WINDS ALOFT ARE LIMITING THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT IS MODIFYING RAPIDLY OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS INDICATE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY THE NW GULF. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN FUNNELING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ...SUPPORTED BY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS. CMAN SITE AT VERACRUZ AND NEARBY ISLA DE SACRIFICIO INDICATE STRONG WINDS PERSISTING CURRENTLY WITH PEAK WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. MID/UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ARIZONA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND PROVIDE A WEAK EASTWARD PUSH TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA...SLOWING SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO THE NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALSO IS SUPPORTING FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH PUERTO RICO. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS BUOY SITES FARTHER EAST INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW LIGHT AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN EXPOSURES AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT...ALLOWING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATED A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N77W...WITH FRESH STRONG N TO NE WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTLINE. A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM THIS CIRCULATION TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. THE FRONT IS DERIVING SUPPORT FROM NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT N OF 29N AND TO THE WEST OF ABACO ISLAND BAHAMAS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TCI THIS MORNING WILL INTERACT WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION S OF 22N W OF 65W THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N40W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 22N. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN