000 AXNT20 KNHC 130541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 1N ALONG 3N6W TO 5N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W 4N25W 5N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OBSERVED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS SUPPORTING POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WEAK TROUGHING...THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT DISSIPATED EARLIER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTS ACROSS THE NE GULF AND OVER THE FAR SW GULF. MEANWHILE A NEW COLD FRONT HAS PENETRATED INTO THE NW GULF...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE OVERRUNNING OF MOIST AIR ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW GULF...AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REPORTED INLAND OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH LATE TODAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SHIFT EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG HOWEVER ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON REGIONAL RADAR...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON SATELLITE AND TRINIDAD/TOBAGO RADAR. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH. ...HISPANIOLA... FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE TO DELIVER WEAK FAST MOVING SHOWERS TO EASTERN EXPOSURES AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES THE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING ALOFT INTERACTING WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM IS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...REACHING SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W TO INLAND OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO SENEGAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 39N47W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN S OF 24N. THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN