000 AXNT20 KNHC 122347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 1N ALONG 3N6W TO 5N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W 4N25W 5N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OBSERVED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA CITY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SEPARATING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER S MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW INLAND OVER S ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 25N94W 22N95W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N94W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE W GULF W OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE COMBINED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. ANOTHER REINFORCING AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-86W INCLUDING THE W TIP OF JAMAICA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE W ATLC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY TUE NIGHT WEAKENING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND THIS EVENING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES THE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N79W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 26N76W THEN BEYOND 32N70W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ALONG 30N78W TO BEYOND 32N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 76W FROM OVER CUBA TO BEYOND 32N. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W TO INLAND OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 23N16W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1038 MB HIGH MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E BY TUE NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW