000 AXNT20 KNHC 121806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING STRONG TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GUINEA TO 05N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N30W TO 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW AND ELONGATED MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS S FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EPAC WATERS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NE GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1022 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N91W TO 26N94W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN GULF. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 30N87W TO 29N83W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN CONVERGES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHERE AN UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS W OF 90W. THE FRONT WILL MAKE A COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS LONG AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA PERSISTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE NEAR 11 FT...BUT SEAS TO 15 FT ARE LIKELY ONGOING OFF COLOMBIA IN THE AREA OF GALE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF JAMAICA. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING SHOWERS IN THAT REGION...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. TRADE WINDS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... SHOWERS HAS CEASED AS A DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ISLAND AND RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORT AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EPAC WATERS SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NE GULF. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ON THE NW GULF IS ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER JACKSONVILLE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WHERE A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 29N16W TO 14N17W...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE N-NW ATLC. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE A COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC WED MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR