000
AXNT20 KNHC 120001
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT 
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W 
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING STRONG TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL PULSE TO 
GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 4N29W 5N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO OVER THE E COAST 
OF MEXICO TO NEAR VERACRUZ COVERING THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND 
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW 
JUST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N94W ALONG 23N95W 20N94W INTO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18.93W. A WARM 
FRONT EXTENDS NE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO 29N92W TO 
28.5N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28.5N88W. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E 
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 26N AND N OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 
91W. A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1016 MB LOW IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N94W 
AND WAS WELL DEPICTED ON A RECENT SCATTERED PASS. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 
LINE FROM 26N88W TO 22N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N E 
OF 89W AND W OF 89W TO THE FRONT. THE 1018 MB LOW WILL MOVE 
INLAND TONIGHT WHILE THE 1016 MB LOW DISSIPATES THROUGH MON. THE 
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL 
STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED S OF 
PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING FROM SW HAITI TO 15N76W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W 
ATLC AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS 
GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E 
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
MON OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 
OTHERWISE A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE BASIN 
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS 
EVENING. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS. THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THE NW ATLC HIGH WILL RETREAT E 
BY TUE NIGHT WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO 
DIMINISH THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI TO 15N76W 
GIVING THE SW PENINSULA ISOLATED SHOWERS. ISOLATED LOW 
LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SURFACE 
TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ISOLATED LOW 
LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE BEFORE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES THE TRADE WINDS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 31N71W TO 
29N78W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES N OVER THE 
FAR W ATLC TO A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 
29N71W SE TO 21N63W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 29N66W TO 22N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 
25N. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED BETWEEN THE 
CANARY AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 31N16W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER THE 
WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 24N15W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1038 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC 
NEAR 38N71W AND A 1034 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 35N32W. THE W 
ATLC FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
DEVELOP ALONG 80W THEN SLOWLY MOVE NW AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
INLAND ACROSS N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE MON EVENING. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON AND WILL 
SLOWLY DRIFT E-SE THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW