000 AXNT20 KNHC 111745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING NE TO E GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 06N18W TO 04N30W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX SUPPORTS A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W...AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N89W TO 29N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W. MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 86W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE W OF 95W. EAST TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE E OF 95W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NW GULF MONDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EAST TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE S COAST OF HAITI AT 18N73W TO 15N75W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF HAITI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL. ...HISPANIOLA... THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO JUST OFFSHORE THE FL COAST NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 175 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 23N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 36N29W AND IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO