000 AXNT20 KNHC 111205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE GOING TO LESS THAN GALE- FORCE...AND THEN RETURN TO GALE-FORCE ANOTHER 12 HOURS LATER...AT THE 24-HOUR TIME DURING THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 1N TO 4N13W 1N27W 3N36W AND 3N43W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT TO THE WEST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N10W 5N16W 4N26W 5N44W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO 19N99W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W. ONE PART OF A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM THE 1019 MB LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER PART OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1019 MB LOW CENTER TO 23N95W...AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 27N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 90W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 14N100W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH 18N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN WITHIN WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N78W IN CUBA BEYOND 28N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR THE FOLLOWING SITES...KHHV...KEHC...KEIR... KSPR...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED FROM THE MIDDLE GULF COAST NORTHWARD...TO HOUSTON. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS FROM BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR IN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER PARTS OF THE WIND FLOW CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...AND THEN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. 700 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W EASTWARD. BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS-BEYOND-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N72W 15N69W 11N66W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.04 IN CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N76W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 6N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF 700 MB SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW...ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH PASSES 23N67W TO 20N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE ADJACENT WATERS THAT ARE FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N72W 15N69W 11N66W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS REACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH THAT CUTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INITIALLY MOVES EASTWARD. HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE A RIDGE THAT EVENTUALLY BUILDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL ENCOMPASS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL OPEN INTO A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND/OR TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N60W AND 20N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N75W TO 27N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W 24N65W 20N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 32N54W 20N61W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.15 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 32N54W 20N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 26N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 20N23W...TO 19N31W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N31W TO 17N45W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N38W TO 6N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N13W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA... THROUGH 19N14W IN MAURITANIA...TO 12N15W IN GUINEA-BISSAU. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N62W 24N65W 20N72W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT